For four months of the season 2019/20, shipments may amount to 17.6 million tons !!!
According to the forecast of the analytical center ” Rusagrotrans“, In October, grain exports from Russia will amount to 3.8 million tons. This will be the first time this season is low: in July, export totaled 4.72 million tons, in August and September – 4.54 million tons each,” told Agroinvestor»Head of the Center Igor Pavensky. Earlier, he estimated the potential for grain shipments in October at 4 million tons, but due to a decrease in export rates, the forecast was lowered.
As of October 22, 19.2 million tons of grain and grain products were exported from Russia since the beginning of the season, which is 9% lower than the level for the same period of the last agricultural year, the Grain Quality Assessment Center reports. Turkey remains the main buyer – it accounts for 21% of exports (about 4.1 million tons), followed by Egypt (11% – 2 million tons), followed by Iran, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam (4% each) ), follows from the report of the Center. His analysts draw attention to a three-fold increase in purchases from Azerbaijan: volumes have already exceeded the figure for 11 months of the 2018/19 season, reaching 754 thousand tons. 95% of this volume came from wheat, the import of which from Azerbaijan became the fourth.
“According to our forecast, in July-October, grain exports will amount to 17.6 million tons, which is 15% lower than last year (20.68 million tons). In particular, the export of wheat will amount to 15.3 million tons – 14% less than a year ago (17.8 million tons), ”compares Pavensky. One of the reasons for the slowdown in exports, he considers a significant increase in domestic prices in almost all regions.
The expert emphasizes that grain prices increased significantly due to deteriorating crop forecasts in Australia and Argentina, problems with harvesting in the United States, declining gross yield and wheat quality in Kazakhstan. As a result, the export price of Russian wheat in October rose by $ 17 per ton – up to $ 208 / ton, says Pavensky.
In addition, Ukraine, which is a very substantial competitor to Russian wheat this season, exported a record volume from July to the second decade of October – over 10.8 million tons (+ 47% compared to last year), and this is more than half of its export potential (19 million tons), ”adds Pavensky. Now Ukraine is gradually moving to the export of corn, which is the main export agricultural crop for this country. According to the analytical center ” Rusagrotrans”, Wheat is also very actively exporting from the EU – 8.5 million tons (+ 49%) and the USA – 10.1 million tons (+ 22%).
Pavensky believes that grain prices will continue to rise. “Last week, a large number of tenders were held for deliveries to Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey, Ethiopia, and purchase prices so far show a significant increase to previous tenders. It is possible that in the future the price will reach $ 215-220 per ton, ”the expert suggests. In the future, everything will depend on the real gross harvest in Argentina, where the situation is very ambiguous, and a number of other factors, he adds. Also, the dynamics of prices will depend on the activity of shipments, but in any case, according to weather conditions, a decrease in the volume of roadstead transshipment through the port of Kavkaz is traditionally expected, although its volumes have decreased this season, they still occupy a significant share in exports, adds Pavensky.